Happy Holidays everyone! I hope you’re enjoying the Christmas season. I put up lights outside my home and love the festive energy they bring. I hope my neighbours are inspired for next year 🙂
The prime rate (and thus variable rates) didn’t change with the December 6th Bank of Canada announcement – this wasn’t a surprise given what the data was saying. This was also the first time that it felt like the BoC wasn’t threatening another increase. I imagine they’ll stay the course and won’t start dropping rates until mid to late next year. Keep you eyes on fixed rates though, because they have been going down recently – make sure you’re working with a good mortgage broker who can lock you into a better pre-approval if the opportunity arises.
The market has been moving, likely more than most people would expect, though I wouldn’t call it a busy market. I’ve had a lot of clients tell me recently that they’ll be putting their search on hold until the New Year, as they focus on travel plans and the holidays. I’ve also had a handful of clients tell me that they want to buy ASAP because they believe this is the best time to buy – which I agree with. On some level, 2023 has mirrored 2022, so in trying to predict what will happen in the new year, I’m looking back at what happened at the end of 2022 and early 2023: December 2022 proved to be one of the best times to buy in recent years – lowest prices and the least competition. But prices started increasing in January because interest rates were static so there was some confidence in the future of rates. Buyers were also feeling like they had sat on the sidelines long enough and were feeling keen to make a move. Good inventory was on the low end so it did make for some competitive situations. These increasing prices started in January and took us to June (the Real Estate Board says it was a 7% increase overall during this period), until the market slowed due to 2 somewhat unexpected rate hikes In June and July. The market has been slower ever since. However, despite a “slow” market, good properties (you know the ones) and low priced properties are still getting multiple offers, which tells me that Buyers are out there, they just need good properties and some confidence that the market is on the upswing.
I’ve been submitting a lot of offers lately – none of them are coming together, and it’s because Buyers and Sellers are at an impasse. Sellers believe the market is going to get better next year, so they’re not willing to negotiate much off their existing list price (which, to be honest, are already decent deals compared to the last year or two). Whereas Buyers want to do some significant negotiating. It’s a game of chicken – Buyers are waiting for Sellers to drop their price and Sellers are waiting for Buyers to come up. I bet Sellers will win this game as Buyers will start relenting first in the New Year. There aren’t many Sellers who absolutely need to sell – and they’re willing to wait until the New Year / Spring Market to get a better price. There are definitely some estate sales and foreclosures that have more desire to sell, but those often aren’t properties that get Buyers excited.
All that to say – I still encourage Buyers to negotiate, because you never know how motivated a Seller is until you try, but if the Seller is digging in their heels, look at the price compared to the overall market over the last few years and you might realize that you can buy this property at a good price and without competition. And as always, make sure you like the property, because that’s such an important part of why you’re buying and can save you a ton of money in the long run.
Here’s a snippet from the Real Estate Board’s Monthly Update:
The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 10,931, a 13.5 per cent increase compared to November 2022 (9,633). This is 3.7 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (10,543).
Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for November 2023 is 16.3 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.7 per cent for detached homes, 19.8 per cent for attached, and 18.2 per cent for apartments.
“Balanced market conditions typically come with flatter price trends, and that’s what we’ve seen in the market since the summer months. These trends follow a period where prices rose over seven per cent earlier in the year,” Lis said. “You probably won’t find Cyber Monday discounts, but prices have edged lower by a few per cent since the summer. And with most economists expecting mortgage rates to fall modestly in 2024, market conditions for buyers are arguably the most favorable we’ve seen in some time in our market.”
Onto the stats:
Vancouver West Real Estate Stats up to and including November 2023
Total inventory has dropped last month, likely in part due to Sellers waiting until the New Year to list and/or taking their property off the market until the New Year. Sale price has remained pretty steady.
HPI Price for Vancouver West
*Unfortunately HPI Price can’t be any more specific than Condo/Townhouse/House*
Average Sales Price for Vancouver West
Median Percentage of Original Price for Vancouver West
New Listings for Vancouver West
Total Inventory for Vancouver West
Total Sales for Vancouver West
Sales to Active Ratio for Vancouver West
Median Days on Market for Vancouver West
East Vancouver Real Estate Stats up to and including November 2023
The number of new listings dropped last month, though overall inventory has remained steady (which tells me a lot of listings are sitting on the market). Prices have remained steady recently but there was a slight drop in detached houses and bedroom condos.
HPI Price for East Vancouver
*Unfortunately HPI Price can’t be any more specific than Condo/Townhouse/House*
Average Sales Price for East Vancouver
Median Percentage of Original Price for East Vancouver
New Listings for East Vancouver
Total Inventory for East Vancouver
Total Sales for East Vancouver
Sales to Active Ratio for East Vancouver
Median Days on Market for East Vancouver
As always, if you have questions on a particular kind of property or location, get in touch with me!
And if you’re thinking about selling your property, give me a call to chat about value, pricing strategy and the sale process. There are plenty of details to chat about – including timing, value, staging and your potential purchase – so don’t hesitate to contact me if you’d like to get started kristi@realestatevancity.ca or 778-387-7371. The better you understand your current value and what Buyers may be looking for, the more successful your sale. There is a finesse to dealing with an ever-changing market.
The mortgage world is changing constantly these days – fixed rates (which are based on bond yields) are changing all the time and variable rates (based on the Bank of Canada prime rate) are static right now and expected to lower at some point in the new year. Make sure you have a pre-approval set so that your mortgage broker can keep you updated on the best possible rates, and so that you can work quickly if the property you want ends up in a competitive situation (which still happens for the best or lowest priced properties). If you haven’t yet spoken with a mortgage broker, get that process started. It’s helpful to know your options when it comes to owning two properties via a bridge loan, getting a 1 to 3 year mortgage amortization, porting your existing mortgage or understanding how any further changes to interest rates will affect you. Times are changing quickly so you need a broker who takes the time to understand your goals and current financial outlook. Email me if you need a referral to a great mortgage broker.
HAVE A GREAT HOLIDAY SEASON!