Happy October everyone! I hope you’re enjoying the long weekends and Fall weather.
The next interest rate announcement is scheduled for October 25th. The general consensus is that rates will remain the same with potential for a small increase. There are a lot of factors that go into why they raises rates, and you can find numbers that support either case, so it’s anyone’s guess what might happen.
The September market picked up quickly, though there are certainly hot and cold points depending on product type, neighbourhood and price. In some cases I’ve been involved in multiple offer situations competing against 5-10 other buyers, and in other cases properties are sitting on the market. I think a lot of this boils down to Buyer motivation – Buyers who need to upgrade to a bigger unit or want to get into the market for the first time are keen to do so right now, but if they do it has to be right: the property has to either be a great price, or it has to be close to perfect. I’m not seeing a lot of activity on reno projects or buildings with potential for big costs, but units that have been well maintained and are turnkey for Buyers tend to be pretty popular. As always, good, entry level units in each market are popular: this means nice condos around $500k-$600k, 3 bedroom units around $1.1-$1.4m and detached houses around $2-$2.2m. I am seeing a lot of investors look to liquidate because the rate increases are cutting into their profits, so you’ll see a lot of investment properties on the market. I think a lot of Buyers expect Sellers to be more motivated than they are – yes Sellers costs have potentially increased with the rates, or will increase if they have to renew soon, but these people were stress tested when they bought and will do what it takes to stay in their home. Why? It’s expensive to move, it’s expensive to rent if the sell and they might be worried that they won’t be able to get back into the market if they sell, so holding onto their property – even if it’s expensive – is a common decision. Plus, most Sellers have equity in their homes which is helpful in a renewal. This lack of movement leads to lower than average inventory which is keeping the market busy. I’ve seen a few properties sell for more than they probably should have, but most units are selling for a reasonable number based on other recent sales.
Fall inventory hasn’t totally materialized yet, and at this point I don’t think it’s going to increase significantly. I think we’ll see more movement in the Spring – personally I’ve had a lot of Buyers tell me that they would rather wait until the Spring to make a move – hoping that there will be more inventory and hoping that a recession might hit others a little harder, leading to some deals. I don’t think we’ll see a much different market in the Spring compared to now. There will likely be more inventory but there should also be more Buyers.
If you want a deal, you need to look for properties that are not as appealing to other Buyers, particularly reno projects and properties that have been sitting on the market. There’s no harm in submitting a low offer. Sometimes Sellers are more willing to accept a lower price than they are willing to drop the price on MLS, and the only way you’ll find out if someone is truly motivated, is if you start talking numbers.
Here’s a snippet from the Real Estate Board’s Monthly Update:
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 1,926 in September 2023, a 13.2 per cent increase from the 1,701 sales recorded in September 2022. This was 26.3 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,614).
“A key dynamic that we’ve been watching this year has been the reluctance of some homeowners to list their homes given that mortgage rates are the highest they’ve been in over ten years,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “With fewer listings coming to the market earlier this year than usual, inventory levels remained very low, which led prices to increase throughout the spring and summer months.”
Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2023 is 17.7 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 12.6 per cent for detached homes, 21.6 per cent for townhomes, and 21.3 per cent for apartments.
Onto the stats:
Vancouver West Real Estate Stats up to and including September 2023
There was an ever so slight increase in inventory, but these numbers are a little closer to average. Prices were pretty steady, though detached houses have been gaining steam, which is promising for the market considering that they dropped the most last year.
HPI Price for Vancouver West
*Unfortunately HPI Price can’t be any more specific than Condo/Townhouse/House*
Average Sales Price for Vancouver West
Median Percentage of Original Price for Vancouver West
New Listings for Vancouver West
Total Inventory for Vancouver West
Total Sales for Vancouver West
Sales to Active Ratio for Vancouver West
Median Days on Market for Vancouver West
East Vancouver Real Estate Stats up to and including September 2023
Inventory saw a slight uptick in numbers but as you can see it’s still on the low end compared to the last few ears (outside of the initial Covid drop). Prices remained pretty steady overall.
HPI Price for East Vancouver
*Unfortunately HPI Price can’t be any more specific than Condo/Townhouse/House*
Average Sales Price for East Vancouver
Median Percentage of Original Price for East Vancouver
New Listings for East Vancouver
Total Inventory for East Vancouver
Total Sales for East Vancouver
Sales to Active Ratio for East Vancouver
Median Days on Market for East Vancouver
As always, if you have questions on a particular kind of property or location, get in touch with me!
And if you’re thinking about selling your property, give me a call to chat about value, pricing strategy and the sale process. There are plenty of details to chat about – including timing, value, staging and your potential purchase – so don’t hesitate to contact me if you’d like to get started kristi@realestatevancity.ca or 778-387-7371. The better you understand your current value and what Buyers may be looking for, the more successful your sale. There is a finesse to dealing with an ever-changing market.
Considering that the market is busier than expected, make sure your mortgage approval is up to date (you can lock in a fixed rate) and that your mortgage broker can work quickly if you need to submit a competitive offer (which are still happening in certain scenarios!). If you haven’t yet spoken with a mortgage broker, get that process started. It’s helpful to know your options when it comes to owning two properties via a bridge loan, getting a 1 to 3 year mortgage amortization, porting your existing mortgage or understanding how any further changes to interest rates will affect you. Times are changing quickly so you need a broker who takes the time to understand your goals and current financial outlook. Email me if you need a referral to a great mortgage broker.