The Real Estate Board indicates that this is the 6th consecutive month with an increase in prices. May is the time of year when we typically see the most activity throughout the market, and that was true this month but in a slightly different way than normal:
– Total inventory is a lot lower than normal. May is typically when we see the highest amount of inventory throughout the year, but inventory numbers are closer to the lower end of the last 5 years of data.
– Total number of new listings is close to the mid range of the last 5 years of data. This indicates to me that we’re seeing a reasonable number of number listings, but they’re all quickly sold, preventing total inventory numbers from increasing.
– Total number of sales seems to be in the mid to high range compared the last few years. I bet this number would be higher if there were more good options for Buyers.
– Eastside Sales to Active ratio is over 30% (most active market is 2 bedroom condos with a 53% ratio)
– Westside Sales to Active ratio is at over 30%, except for detached houses which sit at a 20% ratio, making it the least active market (the most active market is 1 bedroom condos with a 49% ratio)
To the surprise of many, despite increases in interest rates, there are still more Buyers out there than Sellers, which keeps inventory low and competition high. I thought the market would be slower this year than it has been, but I can see a few reasons why it’s busy:
– a lot of buyers plan to purchase under their affordability, so when interest rates increased (and thus the price of a mortgage) it didn’t affect many buyers affordability; they just end up closer to their top limit than they originally planned to be.
– a lot of buyers have been looking since 2020! What may have been a casual desire to upgrade or downgrade is now something they’ve been thinking about for *years* (time flies, especially during a pandemic!) so they’re more keen to move now than ever.
– a robust Vancouver Real Estate Market this year has quelled some fears of a bubble bursting so it doesn’t feel as questionable to purchase
– a lot of Sellers don’t want to let go of their low (~2%) interest rate (especially if they’re upgrading to a more expensive property), so they’re holding onto their current property, which is limiting inventory.
I believe we’ll see an increase in inventory (and also an increase in the number of Buyers) when interest rates start dropping, so I expect next year to be quite an active market with lots of real estate changing hands.
The market always slows down in the summer and it feels like that’s already starting to happen. If you’re looking for real estate – keep looking! You won’t have as much inventory to choose from but lots of other buyers stop looking as well, so it’s typically a good time to find a bit of a deal with little competition. And If you’re looking for a deal, look to areas outside of Vancouver: they slow down first in a down market and pick up last in an increasing market, so you can still find some deals in areas like Squamish, White Rock, Coquitlam, etc. If you have questions on a particular kind of property or location, get in touch with me!
As a Buyer, how can you find the best deal? You have to be offering! If something has been on the market for longer than a week, try an offer. There are a lot of Sellers out there who won’t drop their price to a low number, but they’ll accept it if it comes. A couple reminders for Buyers:
– Make sure you like the properties you offer on, because buying and selling real estate gets expensive, so buying a “deal” today that you sell in 2 years will cost you more than if you buy a property you really like and keep it for 5 years.
– Understand what you can truly afford. If properties you really like sell for quite a bit more than what you can afford or what you felt comfortable offering, they you may have to change your expectations in order to be successful on the next one, especially in a rising market.
As for Sellers, if you’re thinking about selling your property, give me a call to chat about value, pricing strategy and the sale process. There are plenty of details to chat about – including timing, value, staging and your potential purchase – so don’t hesitate to contact me if you’d like to get started kristi@realestatevancity.ca or 778-387-7371. The better you understand your current value and what Buyers may be looking for, the more successful your sale. There is a finesse to dealing with an ever-changing market.
Here’s a snippet from the Real Estate Board’s Monthly Update:
While the year started slower than usual, Metro Vancouver’s housing market is showing signs of heating up as summer arrives, with prices increasing for the sixth consecutive month.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 3,411 in May 2023, which is a 15.7 per cent increase from the 2,947 sales recorded in May 2022, and a 1.4 per cent decline from the 10-year seasonal average (3,458).
“Back in January, few people would have predicted prices to be up as much as they are – ourselves included,” Andrew Lis, REBGV’s director of economics and data analytics said. “Our forecast projected prices to be up modestly in 2023 by about two per cent at year-end. Instead, Metro Vancouver home prices are already up about six per cent or more across all home types at the midway point of the year.”
There were 5,661 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in May 2023. This represents an 11.5 per cent decrease compared to the 6,397 homes listed in May 2022, and was 4.3 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (5,917).
The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,293, a 10.5 per cent decrease compared to May 2022 (10,382), and 20.6 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (11,705).
Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for May 2023 is 38.4 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 28.5 per cent for detached homes, 45 per cent for townhomes, and 45.5 per cent for apartments.
Onto the stats:
Vancouver West Real Estate Stats up to and including May 2023
Check out the number of sales of 1 ands 2 bedroom apartments – a quick increase from the low in January. I wonder if this has anything to do with the lack of housing available for students at UBC. One Bedroom Condos on the Westside has a 48.5 sales to active ratio, which is very active.
HPI Price for Vancouver West
*Unfortunately HPI Price can’t be any more specific than Condo/Townhouse/House*
Average Sales Price for Vancouver West
Median Percentage of Original Price for Vancouver West
New Listings for Vancouver West
Total Inventory for Vancouver West
Total Sales for Vancouver West
Sales to Active Ratio for Vancouver West
Median Days on Market for Vancouver West
East Vancouver Real Estate Stats up to and including May 2023
The detached market has really perked up the last month or so. It has been busy, but now it’s starting to feel a little more competitive. The reason for this is detached inventory is at the lowest it’s been in the last few years. There are quite a few new listings each week but they all get snapped up. All in all, buyer activity levels are high which is leading to the increase in competition, thus price.
HPI Price for East Vancouver
*Unfortunately HPI Price can’t be any more specific than Condo/Townhouse/House*
Average Sales Price
Median Percentage of Original Price for East Vancouver
New Listings for East Vancouver
Total Inventory for East Vancouver
Total Sales for East Vancouver
Sales to Active Ratio for East Vancouver
Median Days on Market for East Vancouver
What questions do you have? Send me an email or give me a call: kristi@realestatevancity.ca or 778-387-7371. I love thinking critically and answering questions, so I’m always happy to help.
Considering that the market is busier than expected, make sure your mortgage approval is up to date and that your mortgage broker can work quickly, if you need to submit a competitive offer. If you haven’t yet spoken with a mortgage broker, get that process started. It’s helpful to know your options when it comes to owning two properties via a bridge loan, getting a 1 to 3 year mortgage amortization, porting your existing mortgage or understanding how any further changes to interest rates will affect you. Times are changing quickly so you need a broker who takes the time to understand your goals and current financial outlook. Email me if you need a referral to a great mortgage broker.